Why Alex Condon is 'safe' NBA draft pick

• Alex Condon profiles as a near-NBA-ready low-usage, high-impact frontcourt role player
• Florida junior has improved every season in minutes, scoring, rebounding and playmaking
• Mock drafts project Condon between late first and mid second round in 2026

Australian NCAA National Champion Alex Condon has quietly built one of the most reliable profiles among draft-eligible college forwards. While he isn’t a high-usage scorer, his impact shows up in the areas that consistently translate to the NBA: rebounding, passing, defensive activity, and effort.

At Florida, Condon has taken on increased responsibility each season, evolving from a rotation big into a frontcourt anchor. He plays with a high motor, runs the floor hard, and is comfortable contributing without needing plays run for him. His game is built around physicality, feel, and versatility rather than volume scoring.

Who can forget how he dived headlong on the floor to secure a loose ball during the National Championship game to seal the title for the Gators.

ESPN.com has Condon going at pick 28 (first round) in its 2026 NBA Mock Draft, NBADraftroom.com has Condon going at pick 36 (second round) to the Sacramento Kings in its 2026 NBA Mock Draft, while BleacherReport.com has him at pick 49 to his college state Orlando Magic with pick 49.

Condon entered the 2025 NBA Draft but withdrew to return to help the Gators defend their national title as a junior.

The Perth big man is clearly a near-NBA ready role player.

Alex Condon — NBA Draft Profile

Position: Forward / Center
Height / Weight: 2.11 m, 104 kg
School: Florida
Class: Junior
Hometown: Perth, Western Australia

Role Classification (Critical)

When you cluster Condon's Junior class bigs by usage style, he falls into a different archetype than most of the Top 50:

Top 50 Junior Forward Archetypes

1. Primary scorers (PTS leaders) – JT Toppin, Milan Momcilovic, TJ Johnson
2. Stretch forwards – high 3PA, high TS%
3. Combo scorers – inside/out balance
4. Interior hubs / connectors is the role Condon plays

Condon is firmly in Archetypes 4, with:

• High TRB
• Strong AST for position
• Solid BLK
• Moderate PTS
• Low perimeter reliance

There are only ~6–8 players in the Top 50 match this statistical profile.

Offensive Game

Condon scores most effectively around the basket, using solid footwork, touch, and strength to finish inside. He’s a strong rim-runner in transition and a reliable screener in half-court sets. While he has shown flashes of range, his offensive value comes from efficiency rather than shooting volume.

One of his most underrated traits is his passing. Condon sees the floor well for a player his size and can find cutters or kick out to shooters when the defense collapses. That feel allows him to keep offenses flowing without forcing shots.

Defensive Impact

Defensively, Condon brings energy and physicality. He rebounds at a high level, protects the rim as a help defender, and competes on every possession. His mobility allows him to handle different coverages, though discipline and foul control remain areas for growth.

He isn’t a lockdown defender in space, but he consistently makes plays through positioning, timing, and effort.

Strengths

• Strong rebounder on both ends of the floor
• High motor and consistent effort
• Good passer for his size
• Efficient scorer around the rim
• Comfortable in a low-usage role

Areas to Improve

• Shooting consistency, especially from the perimeter
• Free-throw efficiency
• Defensive discipline and foul management
• Continued strength development

NBA Projection

Condon projects as a dependable rotation forward who can contribute minutes early in his career. His ability to rebound, pass, and play within a team concept gives him a clear pathway to earning trust at the next level.

While he may never be a primary scoring option, his skill set fits well on competitive teams that value role players who do the small things well. With continued development, he has the tools to become a long-term contributor in an NBA frontcourt.

Draft Outlook

Condon is viewed as a late second-round prospect with strong chances to earn a roster spot. His style of play suits teams looking for depth, energy, and reliability rather than instant offense.

Bottom Line

Alex Condon may not be the flashiest name in the draft, but he checks many of the boxes teams look for in a modern big: size, mobility, feel, and effort. Players with his profile tend to carve out NBA careers by doing the work that doesn’t always show up in highlights — and that’s exactly what makes him valuable.

Alex Condon's NCAA Career

2023–24 — Freshman (Florida)

GP: 36
MIN: 20.3 │ FGM: 2.7 │ FGA: 5.8 │ FG%: 44.4
3PM: 0.3 │ 3PA: 1.1 │ 3P%: 25.3
FTM: 2.1 │ FTA: 3.1 │ FT%: 68.6
REB: 6.4 │ AST: 1.2 │ STL: 0.4 │ BLK: 1.3
TO: 1.5 │ PF: 2.6 │ PTS: 7.7

2024–25 — Sophomore (Florida)

GP: 37
MIN: 24.9 │ FGM: 3.6 │ FGA: 7.4 │ FG%: 50.4
3PM: 0.5 │ 3PA: 1.6 │ 3P%: 26.6
FTM: 2.8 │ FTA: 4.6 │ FT%: 60.3
REB: 7.5 │ AST: 2.2 │ STL: 0.9 │ BLK: 1.3
TO: 1.4 │ PF: 2.3 │ PTS: 10.6

2025–26 — Junior (Florida, to date)

GP: 9
MIN: 31.2 │ FGM: 4.9 │ FGA: 9.3 │ FG%: 51.3
3PM: 0.2 │ 3PA: 2.0 │ 3P%: 6.3
FTM: 3.9 │ FTA: 6.0 │ FT%: 62.4
REB: 9.0 │ AST: 3.6 │ STL: 0.8 │ BLK: 1.2
TO: 3.0 │ PF: 2.7 │ PTS: 13.9

Clear Development Trend

Condon has improved in all key statistical categories in each of his three seasons at Florida, averaging career highs in minutes, points, rebounds and assists in 2025-26.

• Minutes: 20.3 → 24.9 → 31.2
• Scoring: 7.7 → 10.6 → 13.9
• Rebounding: 6.4 → 7.5 → 9.0
• Playmaking: 1.2 AST → 2.2 AST → 3.6 AST

Whether Condon returns to the Gators for his senior season (the NIL changes a lot for college players) remains uncertain but, regardless, he's developed into a solid, low risk draft pick in either 2026 or 2027 for a NBA franchise needing a reliable big that is going to bring it every night.

Condon will be another Aussie in the NBA sooner rather than later.