Blind Test reveals the 'True King' of the NBL

• ‍Best Players in NBL History: Andrew Gaze‍
• Bryce Cotton's drive for five MVPs makes history‍
• Ranked: The Top 25 NBL Players of All-Time

Superstar Bryce Cotton is on his way to winning his sixth NBL MVP Award. His case only strengthened with the clutch game-winner against the New Zealand Breakers in Adelaide's 112-110 overtime epic in Round 18 of NBL26 on Friday, January 23, 2026 in New Zealand.

Australian basketball's men's GOAT Andrew Gaze, who turned 60 last year, has a record seven NBL MVPs in his storied career with the Melbourne Tigers.

The inevitable comparisons between the two greatest players in NBL history happen almost every time Cotton, 33, steps onto the floor in NBL26.

But who is actually the undisputed king of the NBL? To work that out, basketball.com.au has created a per-36 minute career box score Blind Test: Player 1 vs Player 2

We removed Season, Round, Date, Team and Opponent from the NBL's Advance Stats Game Log to ensure no bias in the analysis.

This is pure box score vs box score.

To get the best out of this Blind Test, try not to cheat by Googling the box scores of either player! (But we get it, NBL fans will work who is who quickly).

Player 1

Career per-36 profile

• Points: 24.2
• Rebounds: 3.8 (OREB 0.6 │ DREB 3.1)
• Assists: 4.8
• Steals: 1.4
• Blocks: 0.3
• Turnovers: 3.4
• Fouls: 2.7

Shot volume + efficiency (per 36)

• FG: 8.1 makes on 15.8 FGA
• 3PT: 2.5 makes on 6.9 3PA
• FT: 5.4 makes on 6.2 FTA

Splits + advanced efficiency (career-weighted)

• FG%: 51.4% │ 3P%: 36.4% │ FT%: 87.7%
• eFG%: 59.4% │ TS%: 65.3%
• 3PAr: 0.438 │ FTr: 0.391 │ AST/TO: 1.42

Player 2

Career per-36 profile

• Points: 23.8
• Rebounds: 3.7 (OREB 0.2 │ DREB 3.5)
• Assists: 4.7
• Steals: 1.6
• Blocks: 0.1
• Turnovers: 2.0
• Fouls: 1.4

Shot volume + efficiency (per 36)

• FG: 7.5 makes on 17.7 FGA
• 3PT: 3.1 makes on 8.2 3PA
• FT: 5.7 makes on 6.4 FTA

Splits + advanced efficiency (career-weighted)

• FG%: 42.4% │ 3P%: 37.5% │ FT%: 88.5%
• eFG%: 51.0% │ TS%: 57.8%
• 3PAr: 0.460 │ FTr: 0.360 │ AST/TO: 2.38

Who’s had the better career? (Per-36)

1) Same tier of creation, different quality of scoring

• Points/36 are basically even (P1 +0.4), and assists/36 are basically even (P1 +0.1).
• The separator is efficiency:
  • Player 1 TS% 65.3 vs Player 2 TS% 57.8 (massive gap)
  • Player 1 eFG% 59.4 vs Player 2 51.0 (also massive)

Translation: Player 1 is generating comparable scoring on significantly better shot outcomes and on fewer attempts (15.8 FGA/36 vs 17.7).

2) Shot profile: Player 2 is more 3-heavy; Player 1 is more “two-level + FT” efficient

• Player 2 takes more threes (8.2 3PA/36 vs 6.9) and makes more (3.1 vs 2.5), with a slightly better 3P% (37.5% vs 36.4%).
• But Player 2’s overall FG% is much lower (42.4% vs 51.4%), which pulls down eFG/TS.

Translation: Player 2’s efficiency is being taxed by what looks like harder volume (and/or weaker 2PT finishing), even though the 3-ball is strong.

3) Decision-making + turnovers: Player 2 wins ball security; Player 1 wins “value per possession”

• Turnovers/36: Player 2 (2.0) is far cleaner than Player 1 (3.4).
• AST/TO: Player 2 (2.38) clearly ahead of Player 1 (1.42).
• But efficiency swings the possession math back toward Player 1: with similar “load”, Player 1’s TS% advantage is enormous.

Translation: Player 2 is tidier; Player 1 is more damaging finishing possessions.

4) Defensive box-score signals: small edge to Player 2 (steals), tiny edge to Player 1 (blocks)

• Steals/36: Player 2 1.6 vs Player 1 1.4
• Blocks/36: Player 1 0.3 vs Player 2 0.1
  Not definitive, but Player 2 shows more event-creation in the passing lanes.

Verdict (based strictly on per-36 + efficiency from individual box scores)

Best player (impact case): Player 1

• Similar creation/36, way better TS/eFG, slightly higher points on fewer shots.

Where Player 2 still has the argument

• Ball security, lower foul rate, and higher 3-volume gravity heavily, Player 2’s profile is cleaner and more perimeter-tilted.

Ultra-Elite Games

• True Alpha games (≥45 pts + ≥5 ast):
  • Player 1: 31
  • Player 2: 3
• Ultra-elite games (≥40 pts + ≥10 ast):
  • Player 1: 6
  • Player 2: 0

PLAYER 1 — Career arc (per-36)

Early Career (entry + establishment)

Profile

• Scoring: already high per-36
• Efficiency: strong from day one
• Usage: primary or near-primary option
• Turnovers: elevated (learning curve)

Read

• Player 1 enters the league ready-made as an efficient scorer
• Not just volume — shot quality already elite
• Early signs of a “value scorer,” not an empty gunner

This is not a slow burn career. It’s an immediate-impact one.

Prime / Mid Career (peak years)

Profile

• Peak TS% and eFG%
• Points/36 at or near career high
• Assist rate stable → slight growth
• Defensive events steady

Read

• This is where Player 1 separates
• Same scoring load, best efficiency
• The per-36 numbers you saw earlier are not late-career padding — they’re driven by the prime

PLAYER 2 — Career arc (per-36)

Early Career (shot-maker emergence)

Profile

• Points/36 comparable to Player 1
• Heavy perimeter usage
• Efficiency already lower than Player 1’s early phase
• Very clean AST/TO

Read

• Player 2 comes in as a pure perimeter creator
• Comfortable taking difficult shots early
• Decision-making is advanced early

Prime / Mid Career (volume peak)

Profile

• Highest FGA/36 of career
• 3PA/36 spikes
• TS% does not scale with volume
• Turnovers remain low

Read

• This is Player 2’s best argument phase
• High difficulty, high gravity role
• But: efficiency stalls instead of rising

This is the key difference: Player 1’s prime = efficiency peak. Player 2’s prime = volume peak without efficiency leap.

Player 1 is Andrew Gaze

• 2× NBL champion (1993, 1997)
• 7× NBL MVP (1991, 1992, 1994–1998)
• 11× NBL All-Star (1988–1997, 2004)
• 2× NBL All-Star Game MVP (1989, 1992)
• 15× All-NBL First Team (1986–2000)
• All-NBL Second Team (2001)
• 8× NBL Most Efficient Player (1990–1997)
• NBL Rookie of the Year (1984)
• 14× NBL scoring champion (1986, 1988, 1989, 1991–2001)
• NBL assist champion (1989)
• NBL 20th Anniversary Team (1998)
• NBL 25th Anniversary Team (2003)
• NBL 40th Anniversary Team (2018)
• No. 10 retired by Melbourne Tigers
• 6× Gaze Medalist (1990, 1994–1996, 1998, 2000)
• FIBA's 50 Greatest Players (1991)

Top 10 Career Games (48 minutes)

1. 60 pts, 7 reb, 9 ast, 2 stl
2. 59 pts, 3 reb, 11 ast, 4 stl
3. 58 pts, 7 reb, 9 ast, 1 stl
4. 54 pts, 14 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl
5. 54 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 5 stl
6. 54 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast
7. 54 pts, 2 reb, 8 ast, 2 stl
8. 52 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast, 4 stl
9. 51 pts, 4 reb, 10 ast, 7 stl
10. 51 pts, 2 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl

Gaze had extreme high-end scoring plus frequent assist and steal spikes.

Player 2 is Bryce Cotton

• 3× NBL champion (2017, 2019, 2020)
• NBL Cup winner (2021)
• 2× NBL Grand Final MVP (2017, 2020)
• 5× NBL Most Valuable Player (2018, 2020, 2021, 2024, 2025)
• 4× NBL Fans MVP (2019, 2021, 2024, 2025)
• 8× All-NBL First Team (2018–2025)
• 8× NBL scoring champion (2017, 2019–2025)

Top 10 Career Games (40 minutes)

1. 59 pts, 3 reb, 7 ast, 1 blk
2. 53 pts, 2 reb, 5 ast, 1 stl
3. 49 pts, 3 reb, 7 ast, 1 stl
4. 49 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast, 2 stl
5. 45 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl
6. 44 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 2 blk
7. 42 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast
8. 41 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 2 stl
9. 41 pts, 1 reb, 8 ast, 4 stl
10. 41 pts, 2 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl

Cotton has an elite shot-making ceiling, strong perimeter creation, but fewer monster multi-category explosions.

Verdict: So, who is better?

Cotton will win his sixth MVP in NBL26 but Gaze remains the greatest NBL player of all-time (for now). Cotton is just 33 and still has at a lot of time continue to bridge the gap. The fact we've been watching both tear it up for as long as we have is privilege for every Australian basketball fan.

At the end of NBL26, they will have a combined 13 MVP awards in the league's 47-year history.

That's greatness.

About the Author

Peter Brown is the head coach of the Sydney Comets Women’s Youth League team in the Waratah Basketball League in NSW. He is also the assistant coach for the Comets NBL1 women’s team in the NBL East Conference. Peter is a 30-year journalist, starting as a sports reporter at the NT News in the early 1990s. He played junior basketball for the Northern Territory at national championships from U16 to U20 and for the Territory’s senior men’s team at numerous international tournaments. Peter has been a basketball fan since the early 80s, especially the NBA. Basketball is his passion — and his opinions his own. Email peter.brown@basketball.com.au with feedback.