23
Jan
By the Numbers
Hawks now in 'win or go home' JackJumpers clash
Will Magnay of the JackJumpers reacts during the round 17 NBL match between Melbourne United and Tasmania Jackjumpers at RAC Arena on January 17, 2026 in Perth. Photo: Paul Kane/Getty Images
The Top 5 are all but set in NBL26. 6th is still live – and Hawks, NZ are closing fast on Tasmania.
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Adelaide and South East Melbourne, have both clinched their NBL26 play-off spots. Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth will, barring unthinkable crashes, almost certainly make the playoffs, where they finish on the ladder is still an active battle..
The real drama still sits at sixth where Tasmania remains in control despite Illawarra looming and New Zealand now in with a sniff. Melbourne’s form has cracked the door, but it hasn’t blown the race open. United is now in a battle with Perth for fourth place.
Sixth, the final play-in, spot is still live and with Tasmania JackJumpers centre Will Magnay's season ending injury the door has been blown wide open. The Tasmania JackJumpers vs Illawarra Hawks on Saturday, January 24, 2026 is now season defining.
State of Play
The Tasmania JackJumpers are sixth at 12–15 with six games remaining. The Illawarra Hawks sit eighth at 8–16 with nine games to play. The New Zealand Breakers are seventh at 10–16 with seven games remaining.
What Will Magnay being out changes in the 6th-place battle
Tasmania’s path to 6th is still schedule-driven, but their “bankable wins” shrink and the three “control games” become more volatile:
JackJumpers’ 6-game run home
- vs Hawks (Jan 24)
- @ Taipans (Jan 30)
- vs Breakers (Feb 1)
- vs Bullets (Feb 6)
- @ Phoenix (Feb 14)
- vs Hawks (Feb 18)
Before the injury: Tasmania could reasonably target 4–2 (16 wins) and almost lock 6th.
With Magnay out: the realistic “safe” line is more 3–3 (15 wins), because:
- The Hawks games become harder to control (Magnay is their defensive anchor and rim presence).
- The Breakers game is a true coin-flip instead of a Tasmania-edge home game.
So Tasmania still control 6th, but the finish window tightens.
Tasmania
- Target: 3–3 (finish 15 wins)
- Comfort: 4–2 (finish 16 wins) still likely seals it, but is less “automatic” now.
New Zealand Breakers
- Target: 5–2 (finish 15 wins) to realistically catch/pass a 3–3 Tasmania.
- Key requirement: they probably need the Feb 1 @ Tasmania win (otherwise they’re trying to make up ground without the swing).
Hawks
- Still need 7–2 (finish 15 wins) to be a real threat — and that’s still an extreme ask with their slate.
The two Tasmania “must-haves” now
If Tasmania want 6th without sweating the last week, Magnay being out means they almost have to:
- Beat Cairns away (Jan 30)
- Beat Brisbane home (Feb 6)
If they drop either of those, the Breakers only need a normal finish (4–3 / 5–2) to come over the top.
The new decider: can Tasmania split the Hawks double?
With Magnay out, splitting the Hawks double is the pivot.
- If Tasmania go 1–1 vs Hawks, and take Cairns + Brisbane, that’s already 4 wins (16 total) minus whatever happens vs Breakers/Phoenix.
- If Tasmania go 0–2 vs Hawks, they almost certainly need to beat Breakers (Feb 1) and one of Cairns/Brisbane to stay ahead.
So the ladder math becomes:
Tasmania go 3–3 (15 wins)
Breakers need 5–2 to match on 15, 6–1 to clear.
Tasmania go 2–4 (14 wins)
Breakers need only 4–3 to match, 5–2 to clear.
That’s the real risk shift created by losing a cornerstone player: Tasmania can’t afford a 2–4 slide anymore.
Tasmania control the race (and why)
Tasmania’s remaining schedule is the cleanest of the three, and they own the biggest direct “four-point games”:
JackJumpers remaining (6)
- vs Hawks (Jan 24)
- @ Taipans (Jan 30)
- vs Breakers (Feb 1)
- vs Bullets (Feb 6)
- @ Phoenix (Feb 14)
- vs Hawks (Feb 18)
Key takeaway: Tasmania get the two teams chasing them three times at home (Hawks twice, Breakers once). If they simply split those “control games” and beat Cairns/Brisbane, 6th is basically theirs.
The two chasers – what their runs really demand
Breakers remaining (7)
- vs 36ers (Jan 23)
- vs United (Jan 30)
- @ JackJumpers (Feb 1)
- @ Hawks (Feb 7)
- vs Phoenix (Feb 5)
- @ Taipans (Feb 19)
- @ 36ers (Feb 14)
Reality check: Breakers have four games vs current top-5 teams (36ers x2, United, Phoenix) plus the Tasmania road game. There isn’t much “free money” here.
Hawks remaining (9)
- @ JackJumpers (Jan 24)
- @ Bullets (Jan 26)
- @ Kings (Jan 29)
- vs Wildcats (Jan 31)
- vs 36ers (Feb 5)
- @ Breakers (Feb 7)
- vs Kings (Feb 13)
- @ United (Feb 15)
- @ JackJumpers (Feb 18)
Reality check: This is the toughest schedule in the league down the stretch. Hawks need a near-perfect run and they still have to beat Tasmania at least once (probably twice).
Schedule difficulty snapshot (based on who they play)
Counting games remaining vs the current Top 5 (36ers/Phoenix/Kings/United/Wildcats):
- JackJumpers: 1 vs Top 5 (softest run)
- Breakers: 4 vs Top 5
- Hawks: 5 vs Top 5 (hardest run)
That’s why Tasmania still control #6 despite being 12–15.
NBL26 Ladder on Friday, January 23, 2026
Each contender’s run home (opponents, H/A)
Adelaide 36ers (8)
@ Breakers, @ Kings, @ Bullets, vs Phoenix, @ Hawks, @ United, vs Breakers, @ Wildcats
Swing games: @Kings, vsPhoenix, @United, @Wildcats + the Breakers double.
SEM Phoenix (7)
vs Taipans, @ Wildcats, @ 36ers, @ Breakers, vs Kings, vs JackJumpers, @ United
Swing games: @Wildcats, @36ers, @Breakers, vsKings, @United.
Sydney Kings (7)
vs 36ers, vs Hawks, @ Taipans, @ Phoenix, @ Hawks, vs Wildcats, @ Bullets
Swing games: vs36ers, @Phoenix, vsWildcats.
Melbourne United (6)
@ Wildcats, @ Breakers, @ Taipans, vs 36ers, vs Hawks, vs Phoenix
Swing games: @Wildcats, @Breakers, vs36ers, vsPhoenix.
Perth Wildcats (7)
vs United, vs Phoenix, @ Hawks, vs Taipans, @ Bullets, @ Kings, vs 36ers
Swing games: vsUnited, vsPhoenix, @Kings, vs36ers.
Predicted final NBL26 ladder
- Adelaide 36ers — 24–9
- Sydney Kings — 22–11
- South East Melbourne Phoenix — 22–11 (tiebreak vs Kings TBD)
- Perth Wildcats — 21–12
- Melbourne United — 21–12 (tiebreak vs Wildcats TBD)
- Tasmania JackJumpers — 14–19
- New Zealand Breakers — 13–20
- Illawarra Hawks — 11–22
- Cairns Taipans — 8–25
- Brisbane Bullets — 7–26
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