The only NBL26 Finals race still truly alive

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Adelaide is a lock and South East Melbourne, Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth will, barring unthinkable crashes, almost certainly make the NBL26 playoffs.

But sixth, the final play-in, spot is still live. The Wildcats and Kings have a flicker of danger but the Illawarra Hawks are firmly in Tasmania's rearview mirror and are looming. Two straight wins on the back of championship centre Sam Froling's return, head coach Justin Tatum adjusting the line-up to resemble his NBL25 rotations has given the defending champs a sniff.

State of Play

The JackJumpers (11-13) are sixth and have nine games to play, the Hawks (8-13) are seventh and 12 games to play.

This is not about the vibe — it’s about specific games Illawarra must win and specific games Tasmania must lose and none bigger than these two:

• January 24, 2026: Tasmania JackJumpers vs Illawarra Hawks (MyState Bank Arena)
• February 18, 2026: Tasmania JackJumpers vs Illawarra Hawks (MyState Bank Arena)

Illawarra's non-negotiables: Win BOTH games vs Tasmania. This is the entire equation. Two head-to-head games remain. A 2–0 sweep swings the head-to-head and effectively removes Tasmania’s margin for error. These games are crucial. If Illawarra splits it's probably over, lose both it is over. But win on January 24 and the last game of the season for both clubs on February 18 in Hobart could be the last game of the season for either club.

For Illawarra to put themselves in a position to qualify, it must win at least 3 of these 4:

• vs New Zealand (H)
• @ Brisbane
• vs Sydney (H)
• @ New Zealand

These are not bonus wins — they are baseline requirements. Dropping two of these kills the chase. Then steal ONE result from:

• @ Perth
• @ Melbourne
• vs Adelaide

They don’t need all three — but they cannot lose all of them and still expect to pass Tasmania.

Tasmania’s remaining slate is cleaner than Illawarra’s.

For Illawarra to pass them, Tasmania must:

• Lose both games vs Illawarra
• Drop at least two of:
  • vs New Zealand
  • vs Brisbane
  • @ Cairns
  • @ SEM

If Tasmania go .500 or better outside the Hawks games, Illawarra is chasing ghosts.

Illawarra don’t need miracles — but they need precision:

• Sweep Tasmania
• Beat everyone they’re supposed to beat
• Steal one big game
• Hope Tasmania drops a couple they “should” win

If any one of those pillars fails, the Top 6 stays exactly as it is — with Tasmania in and Illawarra out.

Every clubs remaining NBL26 games

Adelaide 36ers (19–4, 23 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~8–2 (expected wins 7.5 of 10)
• Typical range (about 2/3 of outcomes): 6 to 9 wins from 10
• Projected finish: ~27–6 (expected 26.5 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan9 — vs Tasmania (H) — 84%
• Jan18 — vs SEM (N (HoopsFest)) — 65%
• Jan23 — @ NZ (A) — 73%
• Jan25 — @ Sydney (A) — 72%
• Jan28 — @ Brisbane (A) — 86%
• Jan31 — vs SEM (H) — 70%
• Feb5 — @ Illawarra (A) — 82%
• Feb7 — @ Melbourne (A) — 65%
• Feb14 — vs NZ (H) — 88%
• Feb20 — @ Perth (A) — 69%

South East Melbourne Phoenix (15–7, 22 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~7–4 (expected wins 6.8 of 11)
• Typical range: 5 to 9 wins from 11
• Projected finish: ~22–11 (expected 21.8 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan8 — vs Illawarra (H) — 78%
• Jan10 — vs Perth (H) — 65%
• Jan18 — @ Adelaide (N (HoopsFest)) — 35%
• Jan21 — vs NZ (H) — 75%
• Jan24 — vs Cairns (H) — 84%
• Jan28 — @ Perth (A) — 40%
• Jan31 — @ Adelaide (A) — 30%
• Feb5 — @ NZ (A) — 58%
• Feb8 — vs Sydney (H) — 64%
• Feb14 — vs Tasmania (H) — 73%
• Feb19 — @ Melbourne (A) — 47%

Melbourne United (15–8, 23 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~7–3 (expected wins 6.5 of 10)
• Typical range: 5 to 8 wins from 10
• Projected finish: ~22–11 (expected 21.5 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan7 — vs Cairns (H) — 86%
• Jan11 — @ Sydney (A) — 49%
• Jan17 — vs Tasmania (N (HoopsFest)) — 66%
• Jan21 — vs Brisbane (H) — 84%
• Jan25 — @ Perth (A) — 43%
• Jan30 — @ NZ (A) — 52%
• Feb7 — vs Adelaide (H) — 41%
• Feb12 — @ Cairns (A) — 77%
• Feb15 — vs Illawarra (H) — 80%
• Feb19 — vs SEM (H) — 55%

Sydney Kings (13–9, 22 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~7–4 (expected wins 6.7 of 11)
• Typical range: 5 to 9 wins from 11
• Projected finish: ~20–13 (expected 19.7 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan9 — @ NZ (A) — 63%
• Jan11 — vs Melbourne (H) — 61%
• Jan15 — vs Brisbane (N (HoopsFest)) — 74%
• Jan22 — vs Tasmania (H) — 65%
• Jan25 — vs Adelaide (H) — 32%
• Jan29 — vs Illawarra (H) — 68%
• Feb1 — @ Cairns (A) — 63%
• Feb8 — @ SEM (A) — 36%
• Feb13 — @ Illawarra (A) — 51%
• Feb15 — vs Perth (H) — 58%
• Feb20 — @ Brisbane (A) — 73%

Perth Wildcats (13–10, 23 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~6–4 (expected wins 5.7 of 10)
• Typical range: 4 to 8 wins from 10
• Projected finish: ~19–14 (expected 18.7 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan10 — @ SEM (A) — 35%
• Jan16 — vs Illawarra (H) — 65%
• Jan22 — vs Cairns (H) — 77%
• Jan25 — vs Melbourne (H) — 57%
• Jan28 — vs SEM (H) — 60%
• Jan31 — @ Illawarra (A) — 49%
• Feb6 — vs Cairns (H) — 77%
• Feb13 — vs Brisbane (H) — 71%
• Feb15 — @ Sydney (A) — 42%
• Feb20 — vs Adelaide (H) — 41%

Tasmania JackJumpers (11–13, 24 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~4–5 (expected wins 4.4 of 9)
• Typical range: 3 to 6 wins from 9
• Projected finish: ~15–18 (expected 15.4 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan9 — @ Adelaide (A) — 16%
• Jan17 — @ Melbourne (N (HoopsFest)) — 34%
• Jan22 — @ Sydney (A) — 35%
• Jan24 — vs Illawarra (H) — 57%
• Jan30 — @ Cairns (A) — 57%
• Feb1 — vs NZ (H) — 58%
• Feb6 — vs Brisbane (H) — 66%
• Feb14 — @ SEM (A) — 27%
• Feb18 — vs Illawarra (H) — 57%

Illawarra Hawks (8–13, 21 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~4–8 (expected wins 4.4 of 12)
• Typical range: 3 to 6 wins from 12
• Projected finish: ~12–21 (expected 12.4 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan8 — @ SEM (A) — 22%
• Jan11 — vs NZ (H) — 57%
• Jan16 — @ Perth (A) — 35%
• Jan24 — @ Tasmania (A) — 43%
• Jan26 — @ Brisbane (A) — 59%
• Jan29 — @ Sydney (A) — 32%
• Jan31 — vs Perth (H) — 51%
• Feb5 — vs Adelaide (H) — 26%
• Feb7 — @ NZ (A) — 42%
• Feb13 — vs Sydney (H) — 49%
• Feb15 — @ Melbourne (A) — 20%
• Feb18 — @ Tasmania (A) — 43%

New Zealand Breakers (8–14, 22 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~4–7 (expected wins 4.1 of 11)
• Typical range: 3 to 6 wins from 11
• Projected finish: ~12–21 (expected 12.1 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan9 — vs Sydney (H) — 37%
• Jan11 — @ Illawarra (A) — 43%
• Jan17 — @ Cairns (N (HoopsFest)) — 46%
• Jan21 — @ SEM (A) — 25%
• Jan23 — vs Adelaide (H) — 27%
• Jan30 — vs Melbourne (H) — 56%
• Feb1 — @ Tasmania (A) — 42%
• Feb5 — vs SEM (H) — 42%
• Feb7 — vs Illawarra (H) — 58%
• Feb14 — @ Adelaide (A) — 12%
• Feb19 — vs Cairns (H) — 58%

Brisbane Bullets (6–18, 24 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~3–6 (expected wins 2.7 of 9)
• Typical range: 1 to 4 wins from 9
• Projected finish: ~9–24 (expected 8.7 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan10 — @ Cairns (A) — 46%
• Jan15 — @ Sydney (N (HoopsFest)) — 26%
• Jan21 — @ Melbourne (A) — 16%
• Jan26 — vs Illawarra (H) — 56%
• Jan28 — vs Adelaide (H) — 19%
• Feb6 — @ Tasmania (A) — 34%
• Feb8 — vs Cairns (H) — 56%
• Feb13 — @ Perth (A) — 29%
• Feb20 — vs Sydney (H) — 27%

Cairns Taipans (5–17, 22 GP)

• Run home (expected): ~3–8 (expected wins 3.1 of 11)
• Typical range: 2 to 5 wins from 11
• Projected finish: ~8–25 (expected 8.1 wins)

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan7 — @ Melbourne (A) — 14%
• Jan10 — vs Brisbane (H) — 54%
• Jan17 — vs NZ (N (HoopsFest)) — 54%
• Jan22 — @ Perth (A) — 23%
• Jan24 — @ SEM (A) — 16%
• Jan30 — vs Tasmania (H) — 68%
• Feb1 — vs Sydney (H) — 46%
• Feb6 — @ Perth (A) — 23%
• Feb8 — @ Brisbane (A) — 44%
• Feb12 — vs Melbourne (H) — 28%
• Feb19 — @ NZ (A) — 42%

How win probability was calculated

Win probabilities were generated using a form-based model rather than betting odds. It doesn't factor in injuries, returns from injury only form coming into Round 16. Each team was given a baseline strength derived from its win–loss record to date, lightly “shrunk” toward the league average to avoid overreacting to small samples. For each remaining game, that baseline was adjusted by the opponent’s strength and a modest venue factor – a small bump for home games, a small penalty for away games, and no adjustment for neutral-site HoopsFest fixtures. Probabilities were then sanity-checked using basketball logic so evenly matched top-six games stayed near 50–60% and heavy favourites were capped well below certainty. Expected run-home wins were calculated by summing these probabilities across remaining games, and final ladder positions were projected by adding those expected wins to current records, with close finishes flagged rather than forced by tiebreak assumptions.