16
Feb
Round 22 Preview
Cracking the code to the NBL26 playoff picture
The NBL26 Finals explained
Highlights
Kings, 36ers and SEM battle for top spot and Play-In advantage in NBL26 Round 21.
- 2025-26 NBL Team Lists and Roster Tracker
- How to watch every NBL game in the 2025-26 season
- Interactive and live NBL Scores and Schedule here
There is more than just the MVP at stake with both five-timer Bryce Cotton and Kendric Davis to two clear favourites heading into the last round of NBL26 this week.
The small matter of the minor premiership, second place and play-in seedings are still on the table for all but the Tasmania JackJumpers still on the table.
It simply doesn’t get any better than this.
This is what it means:
Top Six — Round 21
- Sydney Kings: 23–9
- Adelaide 36ers: 23–9
- South East Melbourne Phoenix: 22–10
- Perth Wildcats: 20–12
- Melbourne United: 19–13
- Tasmania JackJumpers: 14–18
Eliminated: Breakers, Hawks, Taipans, Bullets
What Is Locked
- Top six is locked – no team outside can qualify
- Bottom four cannot move into Finals
- The top two cannot fall outside the top four
FIRST PLACE PERMUTATIONS
(Kings 112.7% | 36ers 105.8%)
Scenario A: Kings win in Brisbane – Sydney secures 1st, Adelaide result doesn't matter.
Scenario B – Kings lose & 36ers win: Adelaide finishes 1st.
Scenario C – Both Kings and 36ers lose: Sydney almost certainly stays 1st due to a 6.89% percentage gap.
Adelaide would need about a 7% percentage swing in one round—virtually impossible.
SECOND PLACE PERMUTATIONS
(36ers 105.8% | SEM 109%)
Important: South East Melbourne has a higher percentage but one fewer win.
Scenario A – 36ers win: Adelaide secures 2nd; SEM cannot overtake on wins.
Scenario B – 36ers lose & SEM win: Both 23–10; SEM takes 2nd with 109% percentage.
Scenario C – 36ers lose & SEM lose: Adelaide remains 2nd.
OUTSIDE CHANCE: SEM finish 1st
Requires:
- Kings lose
- 36ers lose
- SEM win big enough to overcome the percentage gap to the Kings (3.74%)
This is mathematically possible, but highly unlikely.
THIRD PLACE
SEM cannot fall below 3rd. Locked top four.
FOURTH PLACE PERMUTATIONS
(Wildcats 105.2% | United 104.7%)
Scenario A: Wildcats win vs Adelaide – Perth takes 4th.
Scenario B – Wildcats lose & United win: Both finish 20–13. United could leapfrog on percentage (a very close gap of 0.52%). This is the live 4/5 battle.
Scenario C – Wildcats lose & United lose: Perth stays 4th.
COMPLETE FINALS BRACKET PERMUTATIONSMost Likely Scenario
Kings beat Brisbane36ers beat PerthSEM beat UnitedWildcats beat 36ers
Transition: What Is Truly At Stake
- Kings playing for minor premiership
- Adelaide playing for 1st or holding 2nd
- SEM playing for 2nd
- Perth fighting to avoid elimination pathway
- United fighting to avoid 5th
- Tasmania is locked into the elimination pathway.
NBL26 FINALS EXPLAINED
The NBL26 Finals feature six teams and a three-stage post-season:
- Play-Ins
- Playoffs (Semi-Finals)
- Championship Series
TOP TWO ADVANTAGES
- 1st and 2nd on the ladder go directly to the Semi-Finals
- They skip the Play-In stage
- They avoid sudden-death games
- They have home-court advantage in the Playoff series
This is a significant structural advantage.
PLAY-IN STAGE (3rd–6th)
Four teams enter the Play-In.
Game 1 – Seeding Qualifier (3rd vs 4th): Winner advances to face 2nd in a best-of-three Playoff Series; and loser gets a second chance. This is not elimination for 3rd or 4th.
Game 2 – Play-In Qualifier (5th vs 6th): Winner advances; and loser is eliminated. This is sudden death.
Game 3 – Final Play-In: Loser of Game 1 vs Winner of Game 2. Winner advances to face 1st; and Loser is eliminated. After this game, the final four are set.
PLAYOFF SERIES (Final Four)
Now the structure becomes traditional.
1st vs Final Play-In Winner: Best-of-three series.
2nd vs Seeding Qualifier Winner: Best-of-three series.
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
The two Playoff winners meet in a: Best-of-five Championship Series.
WHY LADDER POSITION MATTERS
- 1st – No elimination risk, cleanest path to Championship Series
- 2nd – No elimination risk, direct entry to Playoffs
- 3rd – Double chance via Seeding Qualifier
- 4th – Double chance via Seeding Qualifier
- 5th – Must win two sudden-death games to reach Playoffs
- 6th – Road sudden death, then two elimination wins required
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