'Ball don't lie': Cold guards driving 3P% decline

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The “ball don’t lie” and neither do the numbers.

Guards are driving down three-point field goal percentage during the first five rounds of NBL26 versus NBL25 and there have been more blow-outs this season with the average margin of victory 9.6 points, up from 6.9 points in 2024-25.

NBL guards are shooting just 31.9% from outside the arc to start the season compared to 36.2% through the first five rounds last season.

This is what NBL+ Statistical Data reveals on all qualified players in both seasons after five rounds.

• Overall efficiency rose inside the arc. Every position posted higher 2P%, led by centres (+3.7%) — a clear sign that finishing near the rim has improved league-wide.
• Three-point shooting fell sharply among guards (-4.3%) and slightly among bigs (many of whom barely attempt threes). Forwards held steady.
• Free-throw accuracy dipped slightly across most roles, except centres, who nudged upward.
• FG% gap widened between guards and bigs — in 2025-26, centres are now almost 19 percentage points higher in overall FG%.

Despite the decline in three point shooting, scoring is +3.2 league-wide Year on Year.

• Biggest Improvement (Net Rating):
  Melbourne United (+11.9); SE Melbourne (+11.7); and Tasmania (+7.5)
• Sharpest Decline:
  Illawarra (-22.9); Cairns (-5.6); and New Zealand (-3.3)

And that right there is the primary catalyst for the increased number of blowouts. Average margins are up almost three points per game, and one in three matches is a 15+ point rout.

• Scoring pace is similar (+1.3 ppg league-wide), so the wider margins aren’t about faster tempo — they’re about imbalance.
• The top-tier teams (Melbourne, SEM, Adelaide) have lifted efficiency, while defending NBL champions Illawarra, Cairns, NZB have regressed defensively.
• Illawarra has a net rating of -22.9 points per game, its high octane offense down 12.3 points per game and defense conceding 10.6 more points per game.

2025–26 parity is lower:

• In 2024–25, 75% of games were decided by less than 10 points.
• In 2025–26, only 57% are within single digits.

But it's not all doom and gloom, or misses, NBL26 already has better paint scoring more points per game, despite weaker perimeter shooting.

Illawarra's tough start without Trey Kell III, Sam Froling, Lachlan Olbrich and William "Davo" Hickey, even though the Hawks recruited NBA champion JaVale McGee, has severely impacted the numbers between the start of the two seasons.

Blow-outs don't pass the eye test and critics are circling about the quality. But the numbers show outliers are impacting results significantly, especially blowouts.

Coupled with Melbourne United's absolute dominance in their 7-0 start (+9.1 offensively and conceding less points +2.8 per game) is breaking apart the top four versus the bottom six.