28
Jan
Battle for 4th
UC vs Southside – one game decides WNBL26 Finals
Nicole Munger of the Capitals in action during the round nine WNBL match between Canberra Capitals and Southside Flyers at AIS Arena on December 12, 2025 in Canberra. Photo: Mark Nolan/Getty Images
Highlights
WNBL26’s final playoff spot will be decided in Canberra as UC Capitals host Southside Flyers.
- 2025-26 WNBL Team Lists and Roster Tracker
- Latest News: Read more about the WNBL here.
- Latest WNBL Scores and Schedule here
- All 92 games of the 2025-26 WNBL season
The WNBL26 season for two teams – UC Capitals and Southside Melbourne Flyers – comes down to one game, one matchup, and one margin.
Right now, the 4th-placed Caps and 5th-placed Flyers are locked together at 8–12. UC Capitals and Southside Flyers are chasing the same door from opposite sides – one holding the tiebreak advantage, the other holding the urgency.
The reality is simple – their February 3 clash in Canberra is a de facto elimination final. UC win it, and fourth place is theirs unless something bizarre happens in the final week. Southside win it, and the pressure flips instantly – UC would be forced to beat Geelong and potentially chase a result against Townsville, while Southside would head to Adelaide knowing they control their own destiny.
For UC, the path is narrow but clear. They don’t need miracles – they just need to win. Home wins against Southside and Geelong in their last three almost certainly secure fourth, regardless of what happens in their game in Townsville on January 31. UC’s underlying numbers tell the story of why they’re still alive – their defence has kept them competitive, their margins haven’t collapsed, and their points differential remains significantly stronger than Southside’s. That matters if the ladder finishes level – and UC know it. The Capitals don’t need to chase blowouts; they need to protect possession, manage tempo, and make Southside play from behind.
Southside, by contrast, are chasing wins and not margin. Their season has been uneven – they’ve beaten good teams. Their point differential sits near neutral, which tells you how fine their margins have been all season. That leaves them with no room for safety nets. If the Flyers lose to UC in Canberra, their season is effectively over. Even beating Adelaide in the final round won’t be enough unless UC stumble elsewhere.
So this isn’t about who’s had the better season. It’s about who has more margin for error. Right now, that’s UC.
One win, at home, against the team chasing them – and the finals door closes behind them.
UC Capitals vs Southside Melbourne Flyers – 2025–26 Season Series
- Game 1: Saturday, 18 October 2025 – UC Capitals 80 def. Southside Flyers 71
- Game 2: Friday, 12 December 2025 – UC Capitals 97 def. Southside Flyers 71
Season Series
- UC Capitals lead 2–0
- Average margin: +17.5 UC
- Both wins by double digits
- Tiebreak: UC Capitals hold the head-to-head advantage
If UC and Southside finish level on wins, the Capitals own the tiebreak. That’s why the February 3 matchup carries such weight.
Ladder snapshot (as of right now)
- Townsville Fire – 17–4
- Bendigo Spirit – 16–4
- Perth Lynx – 16–5
- UC Capitals – 8–12
- Southside Flyers – 8–12
- Adelaide Lightning – 6–15
- Sydney Flames – 6–15
- Geelong Venom – 5–15
The race is really UC vs Southside for 4th. Everyone else is either locked in or effectively done.
🏆 TIER 1 – LOCKED FINALS (but jockeying for position)
Townsville Fire (17–4)
Remaining fixtures
- vs UC Capitals (H) – Jan 31
- vs Bendigo Spirit (H) – Feb 8
Likelihood
- UC (H): High
- Bendigo (H): 50–55%
Finals outlook: Townsville are mathematically safe and almost certain to finish top two. Beating UC probably locks top-two outright. The Bendigo game likely decides minor premiership vs second.
Bendigo Spirit (16–4)
Remaining fixtures
- @ Geelong Venom – Jan 30
- vs Perth Lynx (H) – Feb 1
- @ Townsville Fire – Feb 8
Likelihood
- Geelong (A): Very high
- Perth (H): 60%
- Townsville (A): 45–50%
Finals outlook: Also locked. One win probably guarantees top two. Two wins puts real pressure on Townsville for first. They control their destiny.
Perth Lynx (16–5)
Remaining fixtures
- @ Bendigo Spirit – Feb 1
- vs Sydney Flames (H) – Feb 7
Likelihood
- Bendigo (A): 40–45%
- Sydney (H): Very high
Finals outlook: Perth are safe but fighting to avoid 3rd if possible. Likely finish 3rd, but a Bendigo upset opens the door to 2nd if others slip.
⚔️ TIER 2 – THE BATTLE FOR 4TH
UC Capitals (8–12)
Remaining fixtures
- @ Townsville Fire – Jan 31
- vs Southside Flyers – Feb 3
- vs Geelong Venom – Feb 7
Likelihood
- Townsville (A): Low
- Southside (H): 60–65%
- Geelong (H): High
What UC need
- Must beat Southside
- Beat Geelong
- Anything from Townsville is bonus
Likely finish
- 2–1 finish: almost certainly 4th
- 1–2: vulnerable if Southside run the table
UC hold a points differential edge over Southside, which matters if they finish level.
Finals probability: ~65%
Southside Flyers (8–12)
Remaining fixtures
- @ UC Capitals – Feb 3
- @ Perth Lynx – Jan 27 (already played, heavy loss)
- @ Adelaide Lightning – Feb 8
Likelihood
- UC (A): 35–40%
- Adelaide (A): 65–70%
What Southside need
- Must beat UC away
- Beat Adelaide
- Hope UC drop another game
They are chasing from behind and have the harder tiebreak profile.
Finals probability: ~35%
❌ TIER 3 – ELIMINATED
Adelaide Lightning (6–15)
Remaining
- vs Southside Flyers (H) – Feb 8
Even winning out leaves them short unless chaos above. Effectively done.
Sydney Flames (6–15)
Remaining
- @ Perth Lynx – Feb 7
- vs Geelong Venom – Feb 1
No realistic path.
Geelong Venom (5–15)
Remaining
- vs Bendigo Spirit – Jan 30
- @ Sydney Flames – Feb 1
- @ UC Capitals – Feb 7
Already eliminated.
🔮 MOST LIKELY FINALS FIELD
- Townsville Fire
- Bendigo Spirit
- Perth Lynx
- UC Capitals
Swing game of the season: UC Capitals vs Southside Flyers – Feb 3 (AIS Arena)
That’s the season right there.
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