Case FOR Dash staying two seasons as NBL Next Star

• ‍16-year-old Dash signs on NBL Next Stars dotted line‍
• Mock draft: Karim Lopez, Daniels dash into 2026 Top 10‍
• Dean Vickerman to take time with Dash's NBA dream

Australian basketball prodigy Dash Daniels has developed into one of the world's top emerging talents and looks to have a super bright future ahead of him.

Of course, the bloodlines are promising, with brother Dyson Daniels a key piece with the Atlanta Hawks and father Ricky a former college baller at North Carolina State, as well as with the NBL1 South's Bendigo Braves.

As most know by now, Daniels knocked back heavy interest from US colleges to join the NBL’s Next Stars program with Melbourne United, making him one of the youngest players in the league’s history. Suffice to say, the 17-year-old is likely on his way to a long and burgeoning career at the NBA level, with certain outlets currently projecting Dash to land in the lottery of the 2026 NBA draft.

That said, the consensus is not yet sold, with other outlets projecting Daniels in the back-half of the first round and even in the second round. The reasoning behind that lack of consensus is what I am here to discuss, and why spending two seasons in the NBL might have the most long-term benefit for Dash.

Ironically, the scouting report on Daniels is remarkably similar to how pundits viewed Dyson at a comparable age: an elite defensive prospect with a raw offensive game. Of course, those who rated Dyson as a lottery talent pre-draft primarily because of that defensive upside — betting the offence would come with time — were proven right, as he developed significantly on the offensive end in his third season. That development into a true two-way player has the Hawks guard set for a lucrative payday after finishing as a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year last season.

Legitimate two-way players have become among the most sought-after commodities in recent times, which is likely what has intrigued NBA executives so much about Dash. At 6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan, Daniels has all the physical tools to be elite on that end. You add to that his quick feet and instinct for the ball, and it makes for one heck of a defensive prospect. To illustrate this point, Dash recorded an insane average of 3.6 steals per game during the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup last year! Suffice to say, NBA front offices won’t be worried about Daniels’ defensive ability — they will be weighing whether the raw offensive skillset develops like his brother’s did.

So, what do the statistics tell us about Dash’s offence? Internationally speaking, he has represented Australia at five junior tournaments thus far. Of those five tournaments, stats from both the U17 and U19 FIBA World Cups are probably the only truly representative samples to use, given Australia's complete dominance in other competitions, such as the FIBA Asia Cup. In other words, tournaments in which Australia defeated most of its opponents by 50-80 points are less helpful in gleaning meaningful takeaways about Daniels' game.

Nonetheless, for those interested, Dash averaged 10.9 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 4.3 RPG on 51.1% shooting from two-point range, an impressive 39.5% from three-point range (albeit on a relatively low volume), and 62.1% from the free-throw line at the three non-World Cup tournaments he has played in. Those numbers are mostly solid. However, when competing against better teams at World Cups, the numbers largely declined.

At the U17s last year, Daniels shot 48.3% from two and 26.9% from three, but to his credit, he improved his free-throw efficiency to 80.8%. At the U19s this year, Dash’s two-point shooting efficiency plummeted to 25.0% (while shooting 36.4% from three, interestingly), and he shot just 52.4% from the free-throw line. Daniels averaged 8.1 PPG, 2.7 APG, and 3.1 RPG — all career lows in his time repping Australia at the junior level.

On the contrary, Dash has shown some promising signs in recent domestic competition, playing eight games for the Sandringham Sabres in the NBL1 South this season, where he averaged 15.2 PPG, 1.9 APG, and 3.5 RPG on 32.5% from two and 60.0% at the charity stripe — both of which aren’t great, admittedly. However, he shot a blistering 54.5% from three on 4.1 attempts per game; that is three-point accuracy and volume he had not shown before his stint with the Sabres.

All in all, these stats show that Daniels is a capable but inconsistent three-point shooter (evidenced by his fluctuating three-point percentages and volumes between different competitions). Additionally, they show that Dash’s ability to create his own shot is probably his biggest weakness (evidenced by his consistently low two-point percentages), while his poor free-throw shooting remains a worry. Conversely, the numbers also show that Daniels has solid instinctual passing ability and a knack for rebounding at his position, while portraying just some of the true defensive impact he can have.

The U19 World Cup stats, though, are especially relevant because that was the last major international junior tournament NBA scouts had to watch Dash before he becomes draft eligible. I imagine both the U17 and U19 World Cups were particularly significant from a scouting perspective because they gave evaluators a chance to see Daniels playing as a primary scoring option against elite competition of a similar age — something they would have seen (to a degree) if he went to college but won’t see when he’s playing with Melbourne United. And although Dash might not ever truly be asked to play that role as a professional, scouts would have wanted to see more than he showed in Switzerland.

Had Daniels played better, it likely would've cemented him high on most draft boards 12 months out. There was significant excitement surrounding Dash heading into the tournament, with ESPN projecting him to go 10th in their June mock. Unfortunately, that anticipation wasn’t conveyed in production, leaving evaluators in the dark as to where they currently place him — hence the discrepancies on draft boards. On one hand, there remains the allure of a tantalising upside if the pieces come together, validating a higher projection from an outlet like Sports Illustrated, which ranks him 11th on their latest big board. On the other hand, betting on Daniels seems like a high-risk play right now, validating a lower projection from an outlet like Bleacher Report, which ranks him 26th.

Now, it's worth acknowledging that Dash was significantly younger than most other players at that tournament, so he deserves some level of grace. Sam Vecenie, draft analyst for The Athletic (who happens to be based in Melbourne), shared a similar sentiment regarding the age, but also voiced legitimate concern with Daniels’ U19 performance on an August episode of his podcast, saying he’s “still very worried about him as a 2026 prospect.”

Vecenie revealed that even before the U19 World Cup, he had Daniels projected lower in the '26 draft than other outlets did. However, following that tournament, he wasn't sure if he would even have Dash on his 2026 draft board, period.

“I think the upside is very real. He has a very real chance to be quite good at some point, it’s just that the skill level is a step down… my worry is that he hasn’t shown the level of offensive growth that I expected.”

Adam Finkelstein, Vecenie’s podcast guest and Director of Basketball Scouting at CBS Sports, had similar concerns.

“I get the upside play, but I’m just not ready to call this guy a draft pick next year, certainly not a lottery pick,” Finkelstein said.

“I don’t think it’s fair to put that on him.”

Finkelstein made a strategic point about the incentive for Daniels to wait an extra year, not only for his own growth, but also due to external factors such as the overall strength of one draft class compared to another.

“I recognise we’re in a world where people are drafting on potential, but if I’m [Dash] and I don’t even turn 18 until the end of December next year — and I’m looking at a very strong 2026 draft and then a 2027 draft that, right now, looks like the polar opposite — I’m running my own race,” he added.

Indeed, there is a firmly held consensus among experts that the ‘27 draft class is not shaping up to be a strong one.

Jonathan Givony, founder of the well-known Draft Express and former ESPN draft analyst, reported back in July that league executives “are already ringing alarm bells in their front offices for the 2027 NBA draft, which appears to be an especially weak group of rising high school seniors and international players.”

This adds even more incentive for a player in Dash’s position to be open to spending two years as a Next Star. Monetarily speaking, he could stand to gain millions by waiting a year and improving his draft position among a weaker crop of talent, let alone the value that could have for his basketball development.

Although Dash is probably viewed as a better prospect at the same age than Alex Toohey was, we saw the value that an additional year as a Next Star had for Toohey. In year one, the game often looked sped up, and it appeared difficult for him to make an impact. In year two, Toohey looked much more comfortable and confident, which likely solidified his standing with NBA teams as Golden State pounced on the 6’8” playmaker.

Judging from Daniels’ performance with United at the recent NBL Blitz, it’s easy to see similarities in his experience. Dash’s defence was more than adequate, but the offence appeared a ways away, attempting just eight shots in two games (in plenty of court time, it should be noted).

Additionally, Daniels will be battling for minutes with a gauntlet of guards next season at United, with the likes of Chris Goulding, Tyson Walker, Milton Doyle, and Shea Ili all set to play key roles at the guard positions. As we know, in the short NBL season, there are no throwaway games, and if Dash can't get up to speed early, how does Dean Vickerman react? There are realistic scenarios in which Daniels is minimised in NBL26 as Vickerman opts for experience — and he wouldn't necessarily be wrong to do so! To be clear, Dash will still play, but how much he plays could be a real question, as is the amount of latitude he’s given to explore on offence.

All in all, Daniels has shown flashes of the complete player that draft evaluators hope he becomes. If he is high on draft boards eight months from now, it will likely be because he became that player on a much more consistent basis. In that case, he should obviously declare for the draft. But if Dash has the up-and-down year he could well have as a raw, extremely young player competing in a high-stakes league like the NBL, it would by no means be looked at as a failure to spend another year Down Under.