Three's a crowd in chase for sixth play-in spot

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Adelaide is a lock and South East Melbourne, Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth will, barring unthinkable crashes, almost certainly make the NBL26 playoffs.

It means five teams are overwhelmingly likely to make the NBL26 finals, even after Melbourne United’s slump. The real drama sits at sixth, where Tasmania still hold control despite Illawarra looming and New Zealand now in with a sniff. Melbourne’s form has cracked the door, but it hasn’t blown the race open.

Sixth, the final play-in, spot is still live ... barely.

State of Play

The Tasmania JackJumpers are sixth at 12–13 with eight games remaining. The Illawarra Hawks sit eighth at 8–15 with 10 games to play. The New Zealand Breakers are seventh at 9–15 with nine games remaining.

Sixth is still live — but it is now a three-team race with sharply different paths.

This is not about the vibe. It’s about who controls their destiny, and right now only one team truly does.

Tasmania JackJumpers – Still in Control

Tasmania remain the gatekeeper.

They hold:

• The ladder position
• Two home games against Illawarra
• A cleaner remaining slate than both chasers

If Tasmania go 4–4 from here, they almost certainly qualify. If they go 5–3, the race is effectively over regardless of what anyone else does.

Illawarra Hawks – Path Exists, Margin Is Thin

Illawarra’s path remains unchanged — but it is now even narrower after Round 16.

The non-negotiable

Illawarra must sweep Tasmania.

• January 24 – vs Tasmania (HOB)
• February 18 – vs Tasmania (HOB)

A 2–0 sweep flips the head-to-head and removes Tasmania’s margin for error. Split the series and it is probably over. Lose both and it is over.

The baseline

Illawarra must still win at least three of these four:

• vs New Zealand (H)
• @ Brisbane
• vs Sydney (H)
• @ New Zealand

Then steal one result from:

• @ Perth
• @ Melbourne
• vs Adelaide

Illawarra’s problem isn’t mathematical — it’s practical. They now need both Tasmania to stumble and New Zealand not to surge.

New Zealand Breakers – Alive, But Need Chaos

Yes — the Breakers can make it. But they need more help than Illawarra, not less.

Their path is the hardest of the three.

What New Zealand must do

The Breakers likely need at least 6 wins from 9 to be a real threat.

That requires:

• Sweeping Illawarra (home)
• Beating Cairns twice
• Taking at least one from:
  • vs Melbourne
  • vs South East Melbourne
  • vs Adelaide

Anything less than 5–4 probably leaves them short.

What must go wrong above them

For New Zealand to qualify, both of these must happen:

1. Illawarra fail to sweep Tasmania
2. Tasmania finish ≤3–5

If Tasmania go .500, New Zealand are almost certainly out.

How the three teams stack up

• Tasmania: Controls destiny
• Illawarra: Needs precision + Tasmania slips
• New Zealand: Needs precision + multiple teams slipping

In probability terms:

• Tasmania are still favoured
• Illawarra have a narrow but clear path
• New Zealand need compound outcomes, not just good form

Bottom line

The Breakers are not eliminated, but they are third in line.

If the race were a funnel:

• Tasmania are standing at the exit
• Illawarra are directly behind them
• New Zealand are hoping the door jams

Sixth is still live — but for the Breakers to grab it, the season has to break their way twice, not once.

Run Home – Post Round 16

Adelaide 36ers (19–5, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 6.2–2.8 (Exp W: 6.23)
Projected finish (expected): 25.2–7.8

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 18 — vs SEM (N – HoopsFest) — 60%
• Jan 23 — @ NZ — 80%
• Jan 25 — @ Sydney — 54%
• Jan 28 — @ Brisbane — 80%
• Jan 31 — vs SEM — 64%
• Feb 5 — @ Illawarra — 77%
• Feb 7 — @ Melbourne — 70% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Feb 14 — vs NZ — 79%
• Feb 20 — @ Perth — 52%

South East Melbourne Phoenix (16–8, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 5.3–3.7 (Exp W: 5.32)
Projected finish (expected): 21.3–11.7

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 18 — @ Adelaide (N – HoopsFest) — 40%
• Jan 21 — vs NZ — 70%
• Jan 24 — vs Cairns — 77%
• Jan 28 — @ Perth — 45%
• Jan 31 — @ Adelaide — 36%
• Feb 5 — @ NZ — 59%
• Feb 8 — vs Sydney — 53%
• Feb 14 — vs Tasmania — 62%
• Feb 19 — @ Melbourne — 61% (up with Melbourne form drop)

Sydney Kings (15–9, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 5.6–3.4 (Exp W: 5.60)
Projected finish (expected): 20.6–12.4

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 15 — vs Brisbane (N – HoopsFest) — 75%
• Jan 22 — vs Tasmania — 56%
• Jan 25 — vs Adelaide — 46%
• Jan 29 — vs Illawarra — 68%
• Feb 1 — @ Cairns — 64%
• Feb 8 — @ SEM — 47%
• Feb 13 — @ Illawarra — 51%
• Feb 15 — vs Perth — 55%
• Feb 20 — @ Brisbane — 63%

Perth Wildcats (14–10, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 5.5–3.5 (Exp W: 5.52)
Projected finish (expected): 19.5–13.5

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 16 — vs Illawarra — 70%
• Jan 22 — vs Cairns — 73%
• Jan 25 — vs Melbourne — 64% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Jan 28 — vs SEM — 55%
• Jan 31 — @ Illawarra — 58%
• Feb 6 — vs Cairns — 73%
• Feb 13 — vs Brisbane — 70%
• Feb 15 — @ Sydney — 45%
• Feb 20 — vs Adelaide — 48%

Melbourne United (15–10, GP 25)

Games left: 8
Run home (expected): 3.9–4.1 (Exp W: 3.89)
Projected finish (expected): 18.9–14.1

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 17 — vs Tasmania (N – HoopsFest) — 47%
• Jan 21 — vs Brisbane — 68%
• Jan 25 — @ Perth — 36%
• Jan 30 — @ NZ — 50%
• Feb 7 — vs Adelaide — 30%
• Feb 12 — @ Cairns — 59%
• Feb 15 — vs Illawarra — 61%
• Feb 19 — vs SEM — 39%

Tasmania JackJumpers (12–13, GP 25)

Games left: 8
Run home (expected): 4.4–3.6 (Exp W: 4.42)
Projected finish (expected): 16.4–16.6

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 17 — @ Melbourne (N – HoopsFest) — 53% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Jan 22 — @ Sydney — 44%
• Jan 24 — vs Illawarra — 59%
• Jan 30 — @ Cairns — 56%
• Feb 1 — vs NZ — 60%
• Feb 6 — vs Brisbane — 63%
• Feb 14 — @ SEM — 38%
• Feb 18 — vs Illawarra — 59%

New Zealand Breakers (9–15, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 3.7–5.3 (Exp W: 3.73)
Projected finish (expected): 12.7–20.3

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 17 — @ Cairns (N – HoopsFest) — 58%
• Jan 21 — @ SEM — 30%
• Jan 23 — vs Adelaide — 20%
• Jan 30 — vs Melbourne — 50% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Feb 1 — @ Tasmania — 40%
• Feb 5 — vs SEM — 41%
• Feb 7 — vs Illawarra — 56%
• Feb 14 — @ Adelaide — 21%
• Feb 19 — vs Cairns — 59%

Illawarra Hawks (8–15, GP 23)

Games left: 10
Run home (expected): 3.6–6.4 (Exp W: 3.64)
Projected finish (expected): 11.6–21.4

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 16 — @ Perth — 30%
• Jan 24 — @ Tasmania — 41%
• Jan 26 — @ Brisbane — 56%
• Jan 29 — @ Sydney — 32%
• Jan 31 — vs Perth — 42%
• Feb 5 — vs Adelaide — 23%
• Feb 7 — @ NZ — 44%
• Feb 13 — vs Sydney — 49%
• Feb 15 — @ Melbourne — 39% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Feb 18 — @ Tasmania — 41%

Cairns Taipans (6–17, GP 23)

Games left: 10
Run home (expected): 3.6–6.4 (Exp W: 3.60)
Projected finish (expected): 9.6–23.4

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 12 — vs Brisbane — 55%
• Jan 17 — vs NZ (N – HoopsFest) — 42%
• Jan 22 — @ Perth — 27%
• Jan 24 — @ SEM — 23%
• Jan 30 — vs Tasmania — 44%
• Feb 1 — vs Sydney — 36%
• Feb 6 — @ Perth — 27%
• Feb 8 — @ Brisbane — 59%
• Feb 12 — vs Melbourne — 41% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Feb 19 — @ NZ — 41%

Brisbane Bullets (6–18, GP 24)

Games left: 9
Run home (expected): 3.1–5.9 (Exp W: 3.05)
Projected finish (expected): 9.1–23.9

Remaining games (win probability):

• Jan 12 — @ Cairns — 45%
• Jan 15 — @ Sydney (N – HoopsFest) — 25%
• Jan 21 — @ Melbourne — 32% (up with Melbourne form drop)
• Jan 26 — vs Illawarra — 44%
• Jan 28 — vs Adelaide — 20%
• Feb 6 — @ Tasmania — 37%
• Feb 8 — vs Cairns — 41%
• Feb 13 — @ Perth — 30%
• Feb 20 — vs Sydney — 37%

Projected wins

1. Adelaide — 25.2 wins
2. SEM — 21.3
3. Sydney — 20.6
4. Perth — 19.5
5. Melbourne — 18.9 (big drop in expectation, but still Top 6 favoured)
6. Tasmania — 16.4
7. NZ — 12.7
8. Illawarra — 11.6
9. Cairns — 9.6
10. Brisbane — 9.1

How win probability was calculated

Win probabilities were generated using a form-based model rather than betting odds. It doesn't factor in injuries, returns from injury only form coming into Round 16. Each team was given a baseline strength derived from its win–loss record to date, lightly “shrunk” toward the league average to avoid overreacting to small samples. For each remaining game, that baseline was adjusted by the opponent’s strength and a modest venue factor – a small bump for home games, a small penalty for away games, and no adjustment for neutral-site HoopsFest fixtures. Probabilities were then sanity-checked using basketball logic so evenly matched top-six games stayed near 50–60% and heavy favourites were capped well below certainty. Expected run-home wins were calculated by summing these probabilities across remaining games, and final ladder positions were projected by adding those expected wins to current records, with close finishes flagged rather than forced by tiebreak assumptions.