Special Report: Inside Covid's impact on basketball's next generation

• Basketball.com.au expert Michael Houben takes a deep dive into the impact COVID-19 had on junior basketball around the world
• An international scout believes the 2008-born class has the least amount of surefire NBA talent since the 2000 generation
• The top two international prospects of the 2007 class are Karim Lopez and Dash Daniels

In 2025, COVID-19 and its lockdowns may feel like a fever dream to many, but we continue to see the ripple effects of the pandemic throughout society, and basketball may be no exception.

One unanimous takeaway at this year’s Australian Under-18 National Championships was a general scarcity of high-level prospects. This is not to say they didn’t exist, but on a broad level, talent felt down — or at least, more unpolished. This was particularly prominent within the top-age cohort, with most of the event’s best long-term prospects found in the bottom-age contingent.

A natural aberration in year-to-year talent may absolutely be the answer here, but fascinatingly, this is a trend observed by talent evaluators at a variety of levels world-wide across the age group.

“The 2008-born class is probably the generation with the least amount of surefire NBA talent since the 2000 generation,” No Ceilings Scout and Mexico City Capitanes Scouting Associate Ignacio Rissotto said.

A similar occurrence is evident in the 2007-born class. To Australia and the NBL’s boon, and to the immense credit of the NBL’s Next Stars program, the top two international prospects of the 2007 class are committed to the NBL — South America’s Karim Lopez and Oceania’s Dash Daniels, mocked at No.6 and No.9 on ESPN’s latest 2026 mock draft.

Beyond that, there is a steep drop-off in international talent, particularly in Europe, an area that generally dominates the international draft prospect market.

The lack of talent is so evident, even at this young age, that NBA teams are actively holding out on hiring more international scouts across the next few years given the perceived lack of NBA level talent to monitor, an anonymous NBA source revealed.

On the working theory that COVID could be a potential factor on the age group’s current limitations, lockdown would’ve occurred when athletes were aged around 11 to 13 years old — a formative time for young athletes.

“It’s around the time most high-level athletes are hitting most of their physical milestones with puberty, so not having gym access and competing against others on a high enough scale hits even harder,” African basketball scout and ‘The Diaspora Drop’ founder Ngijol Songolo mused.

NBA Global Academy Director Marty Clarke shared insights into the potential impact lockdowns could have had on development, beyond the tangible lack of court and competition access.

“It’s certainly a really important time to lay the foundation for general skill development," he said.

It’s also the time you’re learning to train and train hard and back it up and go day to day to day. Lots of these concepts of development aren’t just skill development that you missed because you can’t get to a hoop but it’s the understanding of what it’s going to take to become good."

"If you miss that, and the person behind you gets it before you do, then your development is going to be hindered.

"It doesn’t mean you can’t catch up, it just means that you’re starting essentially from the same start point as the group of kids a year younger than you. Missing the year in skill development, physical development and development of game understanding, and understanding what it takes to become more than a club or state player.”

The key point to Clarke’s takeaways — development is not linear. We will never definitively know what factors have impacted the age group of Australian and international talent throughout this age group, nor whether this trend will continue into the 2009-born generation and beyond, but there’s some indicators to suggest that COVID and its subsequent lockdowns did have an impact on elite sporting outcomes — at least for now.

Perhaps this age group has some catching up to do, but the players who are determined to put in the time and gain the right experiences to have every opportunity to reach their full potential.

About the Author

Michael Houben is an Australian basketball writer and scout based in Melbourne, Victoria. As well as covering the game as a journalist, Michael supports US colleges to identify and recruit Australian talent as the owner of Airtime Scouting, and supports grassroots athletes through Airtime Basketball.