3
Feb
Top 4 Finish
Snakes and ladders of WNBL Finals explained
The Lynx huddle after winning the round 16 WNBL match between Bendigo Spirit and Perth Lynx at Red Energy Arena on February 1, 2026 in Bendigo. Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images
WNBL26’s top three are locked, but the final playoff spot comes down to Capitals v Flyers chaos.
- All 92 games of the 2025-26 WNBL season
- Triple threat: Borlase, Maley and Woods in MVP race
- 2025-26 WNBL Team Lists and Roster Tracker
WNBL26's three MVP candidates Isobel Borlase, Anneli Maley and Courtney Woods will be in the 2025-26 Finals with Bendigo Spirit, Perth Lynx and Townsville Fire but which team will finish fourth is still well and truly alive.
Tonight's clash at AIS Arena between UC Capitals and Southside Flyers is season defining for both clubs. There are three games that will decide who will likely play Townsville in Townsville in the semi-finals.
What remains unresolved is fourth place, with ladder positions determined by season win percentage and points differential, not head-to-head results.
Tonight’s clash at AIS Arena between UC Capitals and Southside Flyers is season-defining, but margins across the final round will ultimately decide who advances — and who misses.
How Fourth Place Is Decided
Fourth place will be determined by:
- Win percentage
- Points differential (for and against)
With multiple teams capable of finishing on the same win total, margin becomes critical in every remaining game.
The Three Games That Decide Fourth
- Game 1: UC Capitals vs Southside Flyers
- Game 2: Adelaide Lightning vs Southside Flyers (Round 17)
- Game 3: UC Capitals vs Geelong Venom (Round 17)
Analysis (Percentage-Based)
Scenario 1 — Flyers beat Capitals
- Flyers move to 10 wins
- Capitals are capped at nine wins
Outcome:
Southside Flyers finish 4th — percentage no longer required.
Scenario 2 — Capitals beat Flyers
Records after Game 1:
- Flyers: 9–13
- Capitals: 9–13
Fourth place now becomes a percentage contest, shaped by final-round margins.
Scenario 2A — Capitals beat Venom
- Capitals finish 10–13
- Flyers’ best possible finish: 10–13
Outcome:
Fourth place decided by points differential between Capitals and Flyers.
Margins in Capitals–Venom and Flyers–Lightning are decisive.
Scenario 2B — Capitals lose to Venom
- Capitals finish 9–14
- Flyers:
- Beat Lightning → 10–13 → Flyers finish 4th
- Lose to Lightning → 9–14 → fourth decided by points differential
Outcome:
If both teams finish on nine wins, percentage across the entire season decides it.
What This Means Practically
- Flyers control their destiny with a win over Capitals
- If Capitals win Game 1, every margin matters
- Blowouts, not just wins, can decide fourth place
- There is a genuine scenario where both teams win once and still miss finals on percentage
Top of the Ladder: Locked on Wins
WNBL26 ladder entering the final games
- Townsville Fire 18–4
- Perth Lynx 17–5
- Bendigo Spirit 16–6
Remaining games affecting Top 3
- Townsville vs Bendigo
- Perth vs Sydney
No permutation allows Bendigo or Perth to overtake Townsville on win percentage, regardless of margins.
Final Ladder Outcomes (Top 3)
All remaining scenarios result in:
- Townsville Fire
- Perth Lynx
- Bendigo Spirit
Only fourth place remains unresolved.
Bottom Line
The WNBL26 Finals field is almost set.
The final spot will not be decided by rivalry or tiebreakers — but by percentage.
For Capitals and Flyers, it is no longer just about winning.
It is about how much.
Saturday, 7 February 2026
(Round 17): Canberra Capitals v Geelong Venom (AIS Arena)
(Round 17): Perth Lynx v Sydney Flames (Perth High Performance Centre)
Sunday, 8 February 2026
(Round 17): Townsville Fire v Bendigo Spirit (Townsville Entertainment & Convention Centre)
(Round 17): Adelaide Lightning v Southside Flyers (SA State Basketball Centre)
