NBL or NIL? The pros who could go back to school

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HoopsFest has quickly become one of the highlights of the NBL calendar, attracting fans nation-wide, and converging basketball personnel from all across the world.

Among those personnel were staff from all across the NBA, from scouts to general managers, and a big reason for their presence was to get eyes on the younger generation of talent.

From draftable Next Stars such as Dash Daniels or Karim Lopez or future two-way targets, the NBL continues to be a showroom for potential NBA contributors, but as conversations wore on throughout the week, one common thread was clear - the seismic impact of NIL payments in college basketball are going to affect the NBL more than many realise.

The Next Stars program was conceived during an era where college eligibility was tighter and player revenue was non-existent. Now, with the expansion of NIL and the broadening of those allowed to receive it, the traditional pathways are being rewired for good.

The recruitment of James Nnaji - the 31st overall pick in the 2024 draft by the New York Knicks - to Baylor with a total of four years of college eligibility officially set a new precedent for NCAA recruitment.

Suddenly, any young player, regardless of professional experience (sans a NBA two-way deal or above) suddenly appears a possibility to join rank on a college roster. While rules still appear murky and situations are handled case by case, it appears anyone graduated from 2021 or forward is within consideration.

As such, the floodgates are now opened worldwide for professional athletes to exercise their eligibility and access NIL payments, in some instances in excess of seven figures USD. For the NBL, this means that elite talent, broadly aged 23 and under, could be at risk of leaving the competition for more lucrative pastures stateside.

So what talent could the NBL potentially lose as a part of this shift?

Here are some of the names I heard throughout the week that are reviewing their chances of attending college next season.

Owen Foxwell

This one should come as no surprise - Foxwell’s name has swirled around college opportunities as far back as last season, and his continued emergence as South East Melbourne Phoenix’s starting point guard this season will have only boosted his financial market in the US.

It appeared a long-shot for Foxwell to head to college last season given the parameters at the time, but with rules continuing to change, this is a very real possibility for Foxwell come season’s close. In fact, word is swirling that he may already be quite far down the line on discussions with a high major program.

If true, the loss of Foxwell would be a major hole to fill for the Phoenix, who sit second on the ladder in no small part due to the guard’s contributions.

Ben Henshall

Another player whose name has already been heavily tied to colleges last off-season, Ben Henshall had rumoured offers well into seven-figure USD territory, and his representation are again leaving no stone unturned in pursuing the chance to land him on an NCAA program.

Numerous reports rightly attributed Henshall’s academics as a barrier last offseason but it feels like the possibility is more feasible in the current climate than last season’s landscape.

While Henshall has been a handy piece for the Perth Wildcats this year, this outcome would be preferable to having lost him last off-season - as opposed to walking as a free agent, he will now be mid-way through a two-year deal with the club, allowing Perth the opportunity to benefit from a financial buyout, if a college opportunity would come to pass.

Tristan Devers

Bullets guard Tristan Devers initially bypassed college for a multi-year deal with the Brisbane Bullets, but all of a sudden college is looking a lot more exciting with the dollar figures attached to a potential signing.

The 20-year old has come on strong for the Bullets in his third year with the club, averaging 5.2 points on a more consistent 16.4 minutes per game with the team.

I’d expect a smaller market for Devers than the above names, given athletic limitations against college opposition, but the lockdown defender is certainly looking into college opportunities, and should get lots of interest from a variety of mid-major programs.

Dontae Russo-Nance

Initially a Class of 2023 recruit, finishing his high school basketball at Oak Hill Academy in Virginia, Russo-Nance had offers from a bunch of top tier programs including Maryland, California, Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Xavier before ultimately opting to come to the NBL.

Those offers will be much harder to come by now with the change in college recruiting but Russo-Nance should still have a significant market at the college level and after failing to win out rotational minutes over first year pro Jaron Rillie in Perth, it wouldn’t be hard to see Russo-Nance opting back towards college opportunities.

Mojave King

Also toeing the line as far as age is concerned, 23-year-old Mojave King feels well beyond the point of college consideration, but believe it or not, it seems there’s a chance.

Much like James Nnaji’s recruitment to Baylor, King never signed an NBA contract, despite his name being drafted in 2023. If King’s time from graduation fits within the NCAA’s timelines, it’s possible that King could be granted some eligibility to compete in college basketball next season.

King has been a revelation for the Cairns Taipans since his mid-season signing last year, averaging a career high 10.5 points, including 43.6% from outside the arc.

Based on the market, it’s tough to believe a player with his proven professional production would command less than seven figures USD in the college market, making the move a no-brainer.

About the Author

Michael Houben is an Australian basketball writer and scout based in Melbourne, Victoria. As well as covering the game as a journalist, Michael supports US colleges to identify and recruit Australian talent as the owner of Airtime Scouting, and supports grassroots athletes through Airtime Basketball.