López’s leap: Breakers teen shaping as NBA lottery pick

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Mexican NBL Next Star 18-year-old Karim López won't be with the New Zealand Breakers in the 2026-27 season — he'll be in the NBA as a high, potentially a lottery pick in the 2026 Draft.

Why? Numbers don't lie. López was turned himself into a legitimate stretch four. His three-point percentage is up 14% from 30.8% in NBL25 to an elite 44.8% in NBL26 on the same amount of attempts, overall field goal percentage is up from 45.7% to 51.3% on more attempts, rebounding is +1.3 to 6.0 per game, and he's now averaging double figures at 10.4 points per game — in less minutes (22.9 last season vs 21.9 this season).

López was already on the radar of NBA scouts last season as a 17-year-old but now he's an unavoidable 2.03m athletic iceberg.

It was López's spark, including a break away right hand jam, against the Illawarra Hawks in Round 7 that propelled the Breakers to a fast start in Wollongong that led to a 102-60 blow-out, forcing an apology from defending champion head coach Justin Tatum for his team's effort, or lack there of.

‍NBL26 Key Takeaways

Shooting Evolution

• The most striking jump is from 30.8 to 44.8% from three, transforming Lopez from a raw stretch-four to a legitimate pick-and-pop weapon.
• Overall FG% up nearly 6 points despite similar shot volume, signalling smarter shot selection and more confidence in rhythm shooting.

Rebounding & Physicality

• Rebounding up from 4.7 to 6.0 per game — impressive at 18 years old.
• His defensive rebounding rate has improved by +27%, a product of timing and added core strength.

Playmaking Growth

• Assists up 42% year-on-year — evidence of a better grasp of the Breakers’ half-court reads and more composure passing from the elbow and short roll.

Defensive Maturity

• Steals nearly doubled (0.6 to 1.0), while fouls have marginally decreased — showing improved discipline without losing activity.
• Still averaging close to a block per game.

NBA No Ceiling's Tyler Metcalf and Tyler Rucker broke down López's 2026 draft prospects on their YouTube channel earlier this month.

"Big-time prospect — this is one that’s been getting buzz as a lottery pick heading into this year," Rucker said.

"Around 6’7”, 6’8”, 18 years old — a lot of intriguing tools. He was overseas last year, and this was one of those prospects generating some steam, like 'Oh, next year it’s Kareem Lopez time, baby!'”

Metcalf said López had significant upside but it comes with pressure to continue to develop.

"López has been highly touted for the last couple of years — and rightfully so," Metcalf said.

"He has a chance to be the most highly decorated, most highly sought-after Mexican-born prospect ever, which is a lot of pressure. Don’t envy him.

"But honestly, I’ve been a little underwhelmed to start this season. We’ve heard rumblings that he was cleared for contact and full play shortly before the season started, so he’s still shaking off some rust — understandably so.

"The big sales pitch with him is how he uses his size and athleticism to be a really intriguing 3-and-D wing/forward — however you want to classify him: play-finisher, slasher.

"This year, though, he’s shown some more complex passing flashes out of drives. Not as a primary, but as a connector who collapses a defense, kicks out, makes simple reads, crashes the boards, and can defend multiple positions.

"He’s still really raw — but I’m curious: what does October look like for him, and more importantly, how much different — hopefully in a good way — will December and January look?"

Metcalf was pragmatic about Lopez's lottery prospects, not going "all-in" yet but the signs were there.

"But that’s fine. He’s 18," Metcalf added.

"When we project his role, he’s currently in the 98th percentile in spot-up scoring per Synergy — incredible, though it’s on just 10 possessions, so let’s calm down.

"But that’s still encouraging. Last year, his most common play type — 38.3% of his possessions — was spotting up, and he ranked in the 85th percentile.

"That’s really good carryover. He only shot 34.7% from three in those situations last year, and I’d love to see that higher.

"I still have questions about his outside jumper — it looks stiff, like he’s aiming instead of shooting fluidly.

"Growing up, I pitched in Little League, and coaches would say, 'You’re aiming the pitch — just throw it.'

"That’s Lopez’s jumper: he’s aiming, overthinking, it looks rigid. I think his mechanics are workable — they just need more flow.

"What got him into that 85th percentile last year was shooting 68% on twos out of spot-up actions — attacking closeouts, drawing fouls, hitting floaters. We’re seeing that again this year.

"I don’t think he has the handle or playmaking instincts to be a secondary creator, but he’s showing he can operate within the flow. He just needs defenders to respect his shot — if they close out short, his offense gets rough."

Rucker finished the scout by emphasising patience.

We just have to be patient this year," he said.

"There’s a lot of upside — and I get why people are excited.He’s got the makings of something special; now it’s about what develops and what takes the next step forward."

The bottom line though is Lopez has evolved from a promising teenage rotation player into a reliable starting forward.

His shooting leap and rebounding growth make him a legitimate Next Star breakout in NBL26. If this trajectory continues, Lopez could position himself as an NBA-draft-eligible prospect for 2026 — a modern 6’8” forward who can space, defend, and rebound at the next level.

And another success story for the NBL Next Stars program.