Inside Dyson's $30m NBA contract negotiation

• ‍Dyson Daniels wins NBA's Most Improved Player‍
• 'A Star is Born': Hawk Dyson Daniels soars in 2025‍
• Atlanta Hawks and Dyson Daniels apart in early contract talks

Let's do this! Australian guard Dyson Daniels is about to become a restricted free agent.

He and the Atlanta Hawks have a decision to make.

Daniels, 22, is heading into the final year of his USD $25M four-year deal, signed with the New Orleans Pelicans in 2022, that will earn him USD $7.7M for the 2025-26 NBA season.

tl;dr: right now, Daniels is about four points per game away from USD $30-32M per over four years.

The Bendigo-born NBA Most Improved Player, who led the league in steals (229) last season, is now eligible for a contract extension, the deadline is October 21 (AEDT). Extending Daniels removes him from the 2026 off-season bidding war that will likely erupt given more teams will have cap space next year.

Several teams are projected to have significant cap space in 2026, including the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards. That's a lot of potential suitors.

Eight NBA guards earn more than USD $50M including prime Boston Celtics superstar Jaylen Brown (USD $53.1M). To understand Daniels' market value it's essential to map his now versus ceiling against similar archetypes at different stages of their own careers and pay scales.

2025-26 NBA Wing Archetypes Salaries

• $53.1M: Jaylen Brown (28) — Self-created scorer who pressures the rim and midrange but doesn’t space the floor at elite levels.
  PPG: 22.2 / RPG: 5.8 / APG 4.5
• $35M: Jalen Suggs (24) — Highest offensive ceiling: multi-level scoring, finishing, and playmaking; defensive energy high but less disciplined.
  PPG: 16.2 / RPG 4.0 / APG 3.7
• $26.3M: Derrick White (31) — The most balanced of the three — high efficiency, strong two-way IQ, elite off-ball defense.
  PPG: 16.4 / RPG: 4.5 / APG 4.8
• $7.7M: Dyson Daniels (22) — Elite perimeter defense and discipline but has deficits in 3PT shooting.
  PPG: 14.1 / RPG: 5.9 / APG 4.4 / SPG 3.0

Box scores reveal a lot and are the currency of NBA contract negotiations and Daniels' camp can start any negotiation with his elite numbers in 2024-25. He out-rebounds Brown, Suggs and White while has 0.7 APG more than Suggs, is parallel with Brown and about half a dish behind White. None were finalists in the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Award ... except Daniels.

What does it mean? For a start Daniels is coming out of his rookie contract with pocket kings. Between ages 19 and 21, Daniels evolved from a low-usage defensive role player (New Orleans Pelicans) into a confident two-way starter (Atlanta Hawks) — now elite as a finisher and facilitator, with the 3-point shot as the only missing piece separating him from full two-way guard status.

So, how does he compared to Brown, Suggs and White. Brown is an integral benchmark salary, a veteran 6'6" NBA championship two-way guard at the very top end of the contract scale while Suggs has just signed a monster $35M per deal (USD $10M more than Josh Giddey) and 31-year-old Celtics vet Derrick White. Brown is paid twice what White is being paid.

2025-26 NBA Wings Archetypes Comparison

4. Jaylen Brown — Shot-Creating Wing Stopper

• Primary identity: High-usage scorer who defends top wings; cornerstone two-way wing.
• Strengths: 22 PPG scorer, leader, elite finisher and midrange creator, switchable across 2–4 on the defensive side of the ball.
• Limitations: Below-average 3PT consistency
• Archetype: “All-Star level wing scorer” — self-creates offense while offering credible defensive size.
• Value: Supermax tier (USD $50–60); benchmark for top-40 players in both creation and defense and given he's 28 and in his prime his value to the Celtics now Jayson Tatum is out for the season will need to justify the price.

3. Jalen Suggs — Two-Way Slasher / Secondary Creator

• Primary identity: Explosive guard defender who’s added credible shooting and scoring punch.
• Strengths: High-energy defender, improved 3PT shot (B+ grade against league averages), excellent finisher and confident playmaker.
• Limitations: Still foul-prone and streaky from deep; can over-press (shot selection and volume) offensively.
• Archetype: “Attacking two-way guard” — combines defense with dynamic off-the-dribble offense.
• Value: Rising-star profile; USD $35M reflects positive two-way impact and age-based upside still a few years away from his prime.

2. Derrick White — Two-Way System Guard / Team Engine

• Primary identity: Smart, balanced championship guard who thrives in structured team systems.
• Strengths: Elite help defender and chaser, strong screen navigation, efficient shooter (40% 3PT) and an excellent decision-maker.
• Limitations: Low isolation scoring volume; relies on system spacing and knocking down the open three on a Boston Celtics team that shoots a LOT of them.
• Archetype: “Two-way connector” — maximises star teammates through defense, spacing, and IQ.
• Value: Proven playoff-level starter; contract benchmark USD $26M but is on the backside of his prime.

1. Dyson Daniels — Defensive Connector / Secondary Playmaker

• Primary identity: Point-of-attack stopper with elite defensive IQ and discipline.
• Strengths: Switchable 1–3 defender, high basketball IQ, rebounding guard, low-mistake passer.
• Limitations: Low 3-point volume and efficiency; limited half-court scoring based on 2024-25 season averages.
• Archetype: “Defensive connector” — glues lineups together without dominating the ball.
• Ceiling: Derrick White-level two-way guard if shooting reaches league scoring average.

Brown has six years on Daniels and his key archetype indicators swamp the performance radar (below) but Daniels overlaps both Suggs and White in multiple categories.

The pocket kings Daniels has are: he's already an ELITE defender; one of the best perimeter stoppers in the league at just 22; and his offensive growth from 2023-24 to 2024-25 has been meteoric. He averaged 3.8 points as a rookie, 5.8 points as a sophomore and in his third year, with more minutes and usage, 14.8 points.

In 2019, fellow Australian Ben Simmons signed a maximum extension four-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers that paid him USD $30.5M in his first season of that deal. Then 24, Simmons averaged 16.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists in 58 games during the 2019-2020 season.

Now, what difference does an additional four points per game mean if nothing else changes in Daniels' game except a couple more buckets.

• +4 PPG = roughly +2.5 points per 75 possessions, moving him from low-usage connector (~17% usage) to a moderate secondary scorer (~21–22% usage).
• If his efficiency stays near league average (FG 46% and 3P 34%), it means he’s scoring more often, not just taking more shots.
• This puts him in the Tyrese Maxey / Derrick White range offensively and he's almost a decade younger than White.

Dyson Daniels Contract Timeline

• Rookie-scale expiration:
  Summer 2026(after Year 4). Atlanta can extend him up to five years before October 31, 2026.
• Restricted Free Agency (RFA):
  July 2026 if no extension is agreed upon. Atlanta can match any outside offer.
• Earliest Unrestricted Free Agency (UFA):
  July 2027, if:
  1. Atlanta declines to extend or match an RFA deal, or
  2. Daniels signs a 1-year qualifying offer (rare), plays 2026-27 on that deal, and becomes free thereafter.

So, Daniels has a decision to make depending on what offer the Hawks comeback with. It's a similar situation Josh Giddey faced in Chicago this saga-filled off-season, except salary cap crunch on any potential suitors didn't surface any offers for the Bulls to match. Giddey wanted USD $30M, the Bulls $20M and they settled at $25M.

The equation is: Don't sign an extension and enter restricted free agency in 2026, which is the first bet on himself. Delivering another season of growth on the offensive side of the ball and maintaining his performance on the defensive side of the ball puts Daniels in a strong position to drive up his value.

The Hawks also have a decision to make — pay for his potential now or risk losing the potential All-Star.

Daniels' second bet is working toward being an unrestricted free agent in 2027 ... aged just 24 when the salary cap could grow to more than USD $180M, up from the $154.6M in 2025-26. Don't sign an extension now, take the qualifying offer in 2026 and open the shoulders in 2027.

To get anywhere near Brown's salary, this year he will need to:

• Develop into a 20+ PPG scorer with consistent midrange and 3PT confidence.
• Retain top-tier defensive efficiency as matchup versatile across 1–3.
• Generate offensive impact metrics: Increase average and assists
• Drive playoff offense, not just complement it.

What gets him paid

1. 3PT Volume & Efficiency
   • Jump from ~2.5 attempts to 5.0+ per game.
   • Clear 35%+ on catch-and-shoot looks.
   • Creates credible closeouts that unlock his passing.
2. On-Ball Aggression
   • Uses size advantage to attack switches.
   • Develops midrange pull-up and, in turn, opens floor balance.
3. Decision-Making Speed
   • Maintains his elite IQ while trimming 1-2 beats off reads.
   • Improves offensive tempo — critical for higher usage.
4. Defensive Consistency
   • Add more steals/deflections (turn defense into transition points).
5. Playoff Proofing
   • Produce in postseason matchups against high-usage guards.
   • Teams pay $30M+ for playoff viability, not just regular-season metrics.

Right now, Daniels is in the USD $25-27M range if he signs an extension ahead of restricted free agency. Produce another season of growth especially on the offensive side of the ball and he starts to move into the $30-33M bracket. The wildcard is Daniels' Bird Rights and Atlanta's willingness to lock him in.

This means Atlanta can re-sign him for any amount (up to max) regardless of cap space, offer up to five years vs. 4 years from other teams, exceed the salary cap using the Bird exception and include up to 8% annual raises (vs. 5% for outside teams).

This is what the Oklahoma City Thunder did with Chet Holmgren this off-season.

NBA Insider Zach Lowe said on his weekly podcast: "The Hawks have to think long and hard about a lot of players and mitigates against an extension.

"They have to think about (Kristaps) Porziņģis and they have all year to do it. They have to think about Trae Young and they've got all year to do it. They've got to pay (Zaccharie) Risacher down the line, they've already paid Jalen Johnson in a deal that is going to age really well.

"And Dyson Daniels is going to come in and say 'look man, I was already the best perimeter defender in the NBA probably last year, I also averaged 14 a game. I won Most Improved Player, I shot 54% from twos, I created offense on my own, almost, when possessions broke down with my little floater and my bully-ball shoulder, shimmy game ... I'm on 30, I want a number that starts with a 3. Look at some of the other comps in the league ... I can get 30 million ... that's me'."

Lowe believed the Hawks would baulk at price that starts with a 'three'.

"I can say, the Hawks think 3? 30, that's a lot," Lowe mimicked.

But in the next breath Lowe backed the Hawks to back Daniels.

"And yet, I'm going yes on Dyson Daniels, I think the Hawks value Daniels, the prize of a trade that really saved their medium term trajectory as a franchise that sent Dejounte Murray on an out-going trade.

"I just get the sense they love him, he likes it there, reasonable minds. I don't get 30, 29, or 28 but like 24 or 25, 26 is a lot of money, I'm taking it. Yes on Dyson Daniels."

Gary Gulman on the same podcast said: "I think Dyson Daniels probably says a similar thing. I think Dyson Daniels comes in and says Immanuel Quickley got thirty-two and a half."

Lowe jumped in: "I'm better than that guy, he doesn't even play!"

Gulman continued: "Exactly. Then I think the Hawks are going to say Herb Jones just extended for three years, 68, and I think Dyson will say 'that's obviously a below market deal and he only played 20 games last season.

"I think Dyson is going to say yes and they find somewhere in the middle there. Like the 23-26 starting range and also it's something the Hawks have to protect against and this always sounds weird to say off a guy coming off the Most Improved, is you have to protect against another leap from Dyson Daniels because it's plausible he takes his ball handling game to another level this year."

WHAT'S IN THE BAG!!!

Daniels sits closest to White on defense but farthest from Brown in offensive creation. To reach the USD $35–50M+ tier, Daniels needs the Suggs-style offensive jump — consistent shooting and higher usage — while keeping White-level defensive reliability.

If Daniels lifts his scoring output by four points, he projects for a four-year, USD $118–122 million extension starting 2026-27, mirroring Derrick White’s real-term cap share but indexed to a higher cap.

• Baseline (current): $20–22M (Starter-defender, limited O)
• Scenario 2 (+4 offense): $28–30M (Two-way connector, top-15 defender)
• Ceiling (true 3-level scorer): $32–35M (Fringe All-Star)

There a many moving parts from how Daniels performs on the floor, his decision to decline the extension and become a RFA in 2026, or the Hawks paying him on his potential upside to lock him in on a team friendly-ish deal, banking on his continued development.

Regardless, at just 22, Daniels is going to be a steal at any price ... even if it has a three in front of it.

NBA guard salaries in 2025–26

1. Stephen Curry, GSW — $59,606,817
2. Bradley Beal, PHO — $59,020,270
3. Jayson Tatum, BOS — $54,126,450
4. Jimmy Butler, GSW — $54,126,450
5. Damian Lillard, MIL — $54,126,450
6. Jaylen Brown, BOS — $53,142,264
7. Devin Booker, PHO — $53,142,264
8. Kawhi Leonard, LAC — $50,000,000
9. Cade Cunningham, DET — $46,394,100
10. Evan Mobley, CLE — $46,394,100
11. Jamal Murray, DEN — $46,394,100
12. Luka Dončić, LAL — $45,999,660
13. Trae Young, ATL — $45,999,660
14. Anthony Edwards, MIN — $45,550,512
15. Tyrese Haliburton, IND — $45,550,512
16. Ja Morant — MEM, $39,446,090
17. Darius Garland, CLE — $39,446,090
18. James Harden, LAC — $39,182,693
19. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC — $38,333,050
20. Tyrese Maxey, PHI — $37,958,760
21. LaMelo Ball, CHO — $37,958,760
22. De'Aaron Fox, SAS — $37,096,620
23. Desmond Bane, ORL — $36,725,670
24. Kyrie Irving, DAL — $36,566,002
25. Jalen Suggs, ORL — $35,000,000
26. Jalen Brunson , NYK — $34,944,001
27. Jalen Green, PHO — $33,333,333
28. Khris Middleton, WAS — $33,296,296
29. Immanuel Quickley, TOR — $32,500,000

About the Author

Peter Brown is the head coach of the Sydney Comets Women’s Youth League team in the Waratah Basketball League in NSW. He is also the assistant coach for the Comets NBL1 women’s team in the NBL East Conference. Peter is a 30-year journalist, starting as a sports reporter at the NT News in the early 1990s. He played junior basketball for the Northern Territory at national championships from U16 to U20 and for the Territory’s senior men’s team at numerous international tournaments. Peter has been a basketball fan since the early 80s, especially the NBA. Basketball is his passion — and his opinions his own. Email peter.brown@basketball.com.au with feedback. Any email feedback on articles sent to Peter can be published on basketball.com.au for others to read.